Sr. Director/Executive Director, Forecasting & Commercial Assessments

ARS Pharmaceuticals is a fast-growing, innovative company dedicated to transforming the treatment of severe allergic reactions with neffy®, the first and only FDA-approved needle-free epinephrine product. If you’re motivated to make a meaningful impact, this is your opportunity to join a collaborative, entrepreneurial, and inclusive culture.

JOB SUMMARY:

Reporting to the Chief Commercial Officer, the Sr. Director/Executive Director, Forecasting & Commercial Assessments is the company’s authoritative source for commercial projections and strategic market analytics. This leader owns the corporate forecast for neffy, leads commercial assessments for neffy lifecycle opportunities and future pipeline and business development assets, and directs the Market Insights and Competitive Intelligence function through an experienced Senior Director.

The role is a strategic analytical partner to the CCO and the executive leadership team. It turns market data, performance trends, and forward-looking assumptions into the commercial story the company presents to its Board of Directors and the investment community.

This is a high-visibility role for a leader who can build a rigorous, defensible model, leading to a clear, confident point of view for senior executives, investors, and the Board. Success depends on close collaboration with Marketing, Sales, Market Access, Commercial Operations, Trade/Channel, Finance, Medical Affairs, Investor Relations, and Business Development, and will be demonstrated through the actions and deliverables below.

ESSENTIAL DUTIES & RESPONSIBILITIES:

Forecasting & Commercial Assessment

• Own the corporate demand forecast for neffy; the number used for the operating plan, S&OP, and external guidance, including scenario and sensitivity analysis.
• Provide the forecast foundation that Commercial Operations uses for quota setting, incentive compensation design, and territory-level planning.
• Track actual performance against forecast and lead variance analysis. Define leading indicators such as prescription trends, new-to-brand and refill behavior, and gross-to-net, and recalibrate assumptions as the market develops.
• Assist with commercial assessments for pipeline opportunities and business development targets, covering addressable patient population, pricing and access assumptions, peak sales, and risk-adjusted value.
• Support diligence on in-licensing and M&A opportunities with rapid, decision-grade analysis.

Market Insights & Competitive Intelligence

• Lead the Market Insights and CI function through the Senior Director, setting the research agenda, priorities, and budget to align with forecasting, brand planning, and leadership decision needs.
• Ensure primary research directly informs forecast assumptions and strategic choices, including demand studies, ATU tracking, conjoint and pricing research, and HCP, patient, caregiver, and payer research.
• Oversee competitive monitoring, scenario planning, and war-gaming to anticipate competitor actions and market shifts and prepare the organization to respond.

Board and Investor Narrative

• Serve as the analytical lead behind Board materials, earnings preparation, guidance discussions, and investor events, keeping the external narrative consistent with the internal forecast.
• Work with the CFO and Investor Relations to prepare data-backed responses to investor and analyst questions. Monitor sell-side consensus models and explain where and why company views differ.
• Translate complex analyses into clear, executive-ready visuals and messages that make the commercial story easy to follow.

Cross-Functional Partnership and Team Leadership

• Act as a trusted colleague and thought partner to commercial leaders and promote data-driven decision-making across the organization.
• Maintain a single, aligned view of the market and forecast so that leadership, the Board, and investors all receive consistent numbers.

EDUCATION AND EXPERIENCE:

• A Bachelor’s degree in business or related discipline required; MBA/advanced degree preferred. Equivalent combination of education and relevant job experience may be considered.
• 15+ years of related experience, with a minimum of 8 years in Life Sciences - biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, or a related field.
• Prior experience and expert knowledge within commercial disciplines such as forecasting/analytics, product strategy, new product planning, market research, pricing, or strategic marketing.
• Demonstrated experience providing key commercial insights, pipeline planning & forecasting, and leading the insights function to relate scientific information & market intelligence into commercial recommendations.
• Experience successfully partnering across the organization to align and move efforts forward.
• Demonstrated experience in presenting complex data, strategies, and concepts to key stakeholders/executive team/Board.

KNOWLEDGE, SKILLS, AND ABILITIES:

• Strong quantitative and analytical skills, including the ability to evaluate forecasts, market models, and commercial scenarios.
• Solid understanding of pharmaceutical development and end-to-end commercialization.
• Proven ability to lead cross-functional projects/teams and collaborate well and influence without direct authority.
• Strong judgment in situations involving ambiguity or incomplete information.
• Excellent written, verbal, and presentation skills with the ability to communicate clear, decision-oriented recommendations.
• Entrepreneurial, hands-on operating style suited to a fast-paced biotechnology environment.
• Collaborative, influential, and excellent people skills.
• Ability to travel up to 30% is required for success in the role.

LEVELING SENIOR DIRECTOR/EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR: The role will be leveled based on the candidate’s experience, scope of prior leadership, and readiness to operate independently with the Board and investors, as determined by ARS. Both levels own the same core responsibilities; the Executive Director level carries greater autonomy, external exposure, and enterprise influence.